What to Watch 2023: The Global Competition in the Western Pacific
The MOC
Image From MicroStockHub/Getty Images.
By
Dr. Jeff Harley
January 17, 2023
Amid the global competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, the Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy released in October 2022 notes “we are now in the early years of a decisive decade for America and the world.” There are an increasing number of experts and military leaders who have opined that a war with China is increasingly possible within the next decade. The former Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Phil Davidson noted that an open conflict for Taiwan is possible by 2027 while the current Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday noted that such a conflict in the near future cannot be ruled out.
Clearly, these warnings should not be ignored as they reflect a Shakespearean fear that “something wicked this way comes.” Such an unfortunate conflict would have significant loss of life and severe global economic impact. Like most wars, the scope of its implications is almost incomprehensible. Nonetheless, this clarion call is oft silenced by the global challenges being faced today including the Russian war with Ukraine and fears of a global recession caused by the pandemic. Some could even argue that the idea of a global competition is a description of normal human discourse that has occurred for centuries. But today’s global competition is different than past decades for three key reasons.
First, the stakes are higher. A conflict in the Western Pacific could upset the global maritime order that has been girded by American leadership for the last several decades. Ever since the Dutch legalist Hugo Grotius espoused the idea of free seas in his book Mare Liberum, the world has created a body of international law that supports the global economy and reflects the open use of our oceans except for clearly defined territorial seas codified in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas. In recent years, and despite being a signatory to the UN Convention, China has repeatedly violated international law by making extraordinary claims such as the nine-dash line and reclaiming lands on disputed maritime features in pursuit of narrow national interests and a significant shift in maritime rights. The risk to the international order has never been greater.
Second, the contours of conflict itself have changed. We recognize now that conflicts are not clearly delineated by kinetic versus non-kinetic features. We live in a world that now includes space and cyber-domains that are already contested coupled with attacks via social media that threaten to compromise the foundations of our democracy. War has again evolved, and the conflict in Ukraine is yielding more lessons about automation and attrition warfare.
Third, China has built a much more powerful navy while the U.S. Navy is now more limited in numbers. Though the U.S. Navy has greater capability than seen years ago, its global commitments, shrunken logistics capacity, and aging fleet demand further funding from Congress. Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) grows in number and capability supported by short supply lines that should give us pause. Additionally, China’s influence continues to grow globally because of its investments and the renewed vision seen in its string of pearls economic strategy as well as the Belt and Road Initiative.
To address these unique maritime challenges, the United States adopted a tri-Service – that is, Navy, Marine Corp, and Coast Guard – maritime strategy in 2020. The strategy illuminated the challenges faced by the U.S. Navy in the demanding maritime environment of today’s world. There are five core elements of the U.S. strategy: prevailing in day-to-day competition, generating integrated all-domain naval power, controlling the seas, modernizing the future force, and strengthening alliances and partnerships. Together, these core elements outlined a way forward for the U.S. Navy to optimize its preparedness for the competition in which we are already engaged. Attempting to execute the strategy, however, has yielded mixed results.
If properly resourced by Congress, the maritime strategy optimizes maritime capability and readiness that together can create the deterrence so critical in avoiding the growing likelihood of conflict. Former-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis appropriately called for the strength that allows “one more year, one more month, one more week, and one more day” of peace as well as the ability to fight and win if need be. Fortunately, many diplomatic, economic, informational, technological efforts are ongoing to ensure that level of deterrence and our capabilities should be signaled clearly to the world. Perhaps most promisingly, the establishment of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party bodes well for Washington to begin devoting more whole-of-government attention to the global challenges posed by the PRC.
Alliances will also play a large part in the global competition, as they bring capabilities to the conflict and remind the world this is not merely a U.S.-China rivalry. We must continue to cultivate our relationships and alliances in the Western Pacific in case an unwelcome conflict may come. Our allies have already taken note of the challenges posed by China’s effort to modify the existing international order in the maritime arena. Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have convened the AUKUS security pact that creates combined efforts for cooperation on cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, electronic warfare, and information sharing. At the same time, Japan has committed to an unprecedented doubling of military spending in the next five years.
In sum, it would be foolish to think that a conflict in the Western Pacific will never happen. History is replete with unexpected wars that are cruelly unnecessary, as evidenced most recently by the brutal invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Our maritime strategy, properly resourced, plus a greater sense of urgency should prepare the sea services well to deter conflict alongside our allies and partners.
Dr. Jeff Harley is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy. He is a retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral with more than three decades of service who specializes in alliance partnerships, maritime strategy, and the Global Competition.
The views expressed in this piece are the sole opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Maritime Strategy or other institutions listed.
Center for Maritime Strategy
By Dr. Jeff Harley
Amid the global competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, the Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy released in October 2022 notes “we are now in the early years of a decisive decade for America and the world.” There are an increasing number of experts and military leaders who have opined that a war with China is increasingly possible within the next decade. The former Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Phil Davidson noted that an open conflict for Taiwan is possible by 2027 while the current Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday noted that such a conflict in the near future cannot be ruled out.
Clearly, these warnings should not be ignored as they reflect a Shakespearean fear that “something wicked this way comes.” Such an unfortunate conflict would have significant loss of life and severe global economic impact. Like most wars, the scope of its implications is almost incomprehensible. Nonetheless, this clarion call is oft silenced by the global challenges being faced today including the Russian war with Ukraine and fears of a global recession caused by the pandemic. Some could even argue that the idea of a global competition is a description of normal human discourse that has occurred for centuries. But today’s global competition is different than past decades for three key reasons.
First, the stakes are higher. A conflict in the Western Pacific could upset the global maritime order that has been girded by American leadership for the last several decades. Ever since the Dutch legalist Hugo Grotius espoused the idea of free seas in his book Mare Liberum, the world has created a body of international law that supports the global economy and reflects the open use of our oceans except for clearly defined territorial seas codified in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas. In recent years, and despite being a signatory to the UN Convention, China has repeatedly violated international law by making extraordinary claims such as the nine-dash line and reclaiming lands on disputed maritime features in pursuit of narrow national interests and a significant shift in maritime rights. The risk to the international order has never been greater.
Second, the contours of conflict itself have changed. We recognize now that conflicts are not clearly delineated by kinetic versus non-kinetic features. We live in a world that now includes space and cyber-domains that are already contested coupled with attacks via social media that threaten to compromise the foundations of our democracy. War has again evolved, and the conflict in Ukraine is yielding more lessons about automation and attrition warfare.
Third, China has built a much more powerful navy while the U.S. Navy is now more limited in numbers. Though the U.S. Navy has greater capability than seen years ago, its global commitments, shrunken logistics capacity, and aging fleet demand further funding from Congress. Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) grows in number and capability supported by short supply lines that should give us pause. Additionally, China’s influence continues to grow globally because of its investments and the renewed vision seen in its string of pearls economic strategy as well as the Belt and Road Initiative.
To address these unique maritime challenges, the United States adopted a tri-Service – that is, Navy, Marine Corp, and Coast Guard – maritime strategy in 2020. The strategy illuminated the challenges faced by the U.S. Navy in the demanding maritime environment of today’s world. There are five core elements of the U.S. strategy: prevailing in day-to-day competition, generating integrated all-domain naval power, controlling the seas, modernizing the future force, and strengthening alliances and partnerships. Together, these core elements outlined a way forward for the U.S. Navy to optimize its preparedness for the competition in which we are already engaged. Attempting to execute the strategy, however, has yielded mixed results.
If properly resourced by Congress, the maritime strategy optimizes maritime capability and readiness that together can create the deterrence so critical in avoiding the growing likelihood of conflict. Former-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis appropriately called for the strength that allows “one more year, one more month, one more week, and one more day” of peace as well as the ability to fight and win if need be. Fortunately, many diplomatic, economic, informational, technological efforts are ongoing to ensure that level of deterrence and our capabilities should be signaled clearly to the world. Perhaps most promisingly, the establishment of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party bodes well for Washington to begin devoting more whole-of-government attention to the global challenges posed by the PRC.
Alliances will also play a large part in the global competition, as they bring capabilities to the conflict and remind the world this is not merely a U.S.-China rivalry. We must continue to cultivate our relationships and alliances in the Western Pacific in case an unwelcome conflict may come. Our allies have already taken note of the challenges posed by China’s effort to modify the existing international order in the maritime arena. Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have convened the AUKUS security pact that creates combined efforts for cooperation on cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, electronic warfare, and information sharing. At the same time, Japan has committed to an unprecedented doubling of military spending in the next five years.
In sum, it would be foolish to think that a conflict in the Western Pacific will never happen. History is replete with unexpected wars that are cruelly unnecessary, as evidenced most recently by the brutal invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Our maritime strategy, properly resourced, plus a greater sense of urgency should prepare the sea services well to deter conflict alongside our allies and partners.
Dr. Jeff Harley is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy. He is a retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral with more than three decades of service who specializes in alliance partnerships, maritime strategy, and the Global Competition.
The views expressed in this piece are the sole opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Maritime Strategy or other institutions listed.