The First of the Dominoes has Fallen in the Growing World Food Crisis
The MOC
Photo By Julian Paren.
By
Admiral James G. Foggo, U.S. Navy (Ret.), Dr. Ian Ralby
July 12, 2022
The horrific terrorist attacks that rocked the national capital of Colombo on Easter Sunday in 2019 did not cause Sri Lanka to collapse. Nor did China’s takeover of Sri Lankan sovereign territory through impossible loan terms on a port deal that left the country smaller and hopelessly in debt. Instead, it was the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that fomented widespread civil unrest and led to the resignations of both the President and Prime Minister on 9 July 2022. Sadly, this outcome was foreseeable.
Three days after Russia attacked Ukraine in February, Dr. Ian Ralby, Rohini Ralby and Dr. David Soud published an analysis in Politico in which they wrote: “Russia may soon be in a position to decide not only who receives critical food supplies, but who does not. The resulting strategic gains for Russia could also mean deliberately creating targeted food security crises in some of the world’s most fragile states and regions. With countries such as Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Sudan — among others — heavily reliant on Ukrainian grain, even a short-term delay in supply may have drastic consequences.” This is exactly what is now happening.
In the days before protestors stormed his house, deposed Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which he pleaded for Russian assistance to relieve the tension caused by fuel shortages. Even with India providing billions of dollars of support in food and fuel, Sri Lankans are protesting the inability to afford basic necessities. Despite being heavily sanctioned, Russia remains in a position where it could have helped Sri Lanka. Given that Russia was the instigator of the current global economic chaos, it is telling that their response was to allow the embattled country – long beleaguered by a brutal civil war – to fall back into unrest after only a few years of peace.
In May of 2022, the Center for Maritime Strategy released an edition of the Maritime Nation Podcast titled Russia’s Hunger Blockade. For the discussion, Adm. Jamie Foggo and Dr. Steve Wills were joined by Dr. Nick Lambert and Dr. Ian Ralby to discuss the blockade of Odessa and its implications of grain supply. The first half of the conversation examined the historic significance of grain supplies, warning that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The second half looked at the globalization of the world’s economy and delved into the concern that food supply chains would be the proximate cause of new conflicts around the world.
After suffering more than a quarter century of bloody civil war between the so-called Tamil Tigers and the Singhalese-dominated Government, Sri Lanka’s recovery since the end of the conflict in 2009 has been tenuous at best. This vulnerability, combined with heavy reliance on Ukrainian grain made it a prime candidate for collapse. Now that it appears to be the first domino to fall in what is likely to be a succession of crises born of food insecurity and unaffordable fuel, the question should be: what can we do to prevent other states from devolving into unrest and chaos?
In May, the Maritime Nation Podcast on Russia’s blockade predicted that unrest would occur in developing nations with fragile economies that are wholly dependent on the interconnected flow of food tied to the Black Sea – some like Sri Lanka, directly and others, like Venezuela indirectly. With almost a third of the world’s export market in wheat, 17% of corn and 85% of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil in play, the dynamics around fuel and energy may have been felt first, but the impact of the breakdown in food supplies will cause more strife. Beyond Sri Lanka and Venezuela, states including Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, Egypt, Myanmar, Iran, Iraq and Indonesia all rely heavily on Ukrainian grain. Whereas many of these nations are not aligned and, in some cases, ruled by autocratic leaders, their instability risks further unrest on the continents of South America, Africa, Asia and throughout the Middle East.
To date, neither the NATO Alliance, nor the United Nations have taken sufficient steps to open the sea lines of communication. As each week passes, the distribution of mines in the Black Sea proliferates making the free flow of commerce from the port of Odessa through the Bosporus problematic. Action must be taken sooner, rather than later, to rectify the situation and ease the restrictions on the flow of commerce in the Black Sea. That said, the world cannot expect Ukraine to simultaneously fight for its own sovereignty, and risk military defeat to help solve world hunger.
In the aftermath of NATO’s Madrid Summit, as well as the G-7, and G-20 Conferences, the world’s attention has not sufficiently focused on preventing foreseeable and immediate consequences – like Sri Lanka’s turmoil – from the food supply chain crisis. Indeed, the resulting famine, inflation, and instability in pockets around the world may themselves have tangible and significant consequences on even the most developed states.
Now is a time for humility – governments and leaders around the world should be humbled by the reality that in 2022, food, the most fundamental of human needs, is the source of tremendous challenge and uncertainty. Aloofness and arrogance run the risk of not only alienating people, but opening the door to violent responses. As the United States confronts the facts of the insurrection on 6 January 2020, images of Sri Lankan protestors taking selfies in the Presidential residence and offices are eerily familiar. With the successful ousting of a once-popular government, Sri Lanka may prove inspirational for disaffected populations around the world, not just in developing states.
Given that Russia and China are both major players in these dynamics – operating from positions of relative strength – there also is a tremendous danger of weaponized narratives. Russia in particular is working to poison the minds of millions against the Euro-Atlantic allies, and to paint itself as a benevolent actor. How Russian messaging is perceived in Europe or North America is irrelevant; it is how it is perceived in places like Sri Lanka, Myanmar or Sudan. To that end, expressing the truth and acting with genuine benevolence to ameliorate hunger around the world will be key to preventing further global unrest.
And finally, the states that do not want to see chaos take hold must come together in community to strengthen the most vulnerable states. This is not a time to leverage assistance for advancing any political, ideological, military or governance agenda. The starvation of the world will be profoundly detrimental to the rules-based order, and that alone should be motivation to martial creativity, collective action and critical food supplies to help support people in states susceptible to conflict.
Admiral James G. Foggo, U.S. Navy, retired, is the Dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy. Admiral Foggo is the former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe and Africa, and Allied Joint Force Command, Naples. He Commanded BALTOPS in 2015 and 2016 as well as Exercise Trident Juncture in 2018.
Dr. Ian Ralby is the Founder and CEO of I.R. Consilium, a family firm specializing in maritime and resource security. He is an expert on maritime, military, and international law.
The views expressed in this piece are the sole opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Maritime Strategy or other institutions listed.
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By Admiral James G. Foggo, U.S. Navy (Ret.), Dr. Ian Ralby
The horrific terrorist attacks that rocked the national capital of Colombo on Easter Sunday in 2019 did not cause Sri Lanka to collapse. Nor did China’s takeover of Sri Lankan sovereign territory through impossible loan terms on a port deal that left the country smaller and hopelessly in debt. Instead, it was the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that fomented widespread civil unrest and led to the resignations of both the President and Prime Minister on 9 July 2022. Sadly, this outcome was foreseeable.
Three days after Russia attacked Ukraine in February, Dr. Ian Ralby, Rohini Ralby and Dr. David Soud published an analysis in Politico in which they wrote: “Russia may soon be in a position to decide not only who receives critical food supplies, but who does not. The resulting strategic gains for Russia could also mean deliberately creating targeted food security crises in some of the world’s most fragile states and regions. With countries such as Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Sudan — among others — heavily reliant on Ukrainian grain, even a short-term delay in supply may have drastic consequences.” This is exactly what is now happening.
In the days before protestors stormed his house, deposed Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which he pleaded for Russian assistance to relieve the tension caused by fuel shortages. Even with India providing billions of dollars of support in food and fuel, Sri Lankans are protesting the inability to afford basic necessities. Despite being heavily sanctioned, Russia remains in a position where it could have helped Sri Lanka. Given that Russia was the instigator of the current global economic chaos, it is telling that their response was to allow the embattled country – long beleaguered by a brutal civil war – to fall back into unrest after only a few years of peace.
In May of 2022, the Center for Maritime Strategy released an edition of the Maritime Nation Podcast titled Russia’s Hunger Blockade. For the discussion, Adm. Jamie Foggo and Dr. Steve Wills were joined by Dr. Nick Lambert and Dr. Ian Ralby to discuss the blockade of Odessa and its implications of grain supply. The first half of the conversation examined the historic significance of grain supplies, warning that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The second half looked at the globalization of the world’s economy and delved into the concern that food supply chains would be the proximate cause of new conflicts around the world.
After suffering more than a quarter century of bloody civil war between the so-called Tamil Tigers and the Singhalese-dominated Government, Sri Lanka’s recovery since the end of the conflict in 2009 has been tenuous at best. This vulnerability, combined with heavy reliance on Ukrainian grain made it a prime candidate for collapse. Now that it appears to be the first domino to fall in what is likely to be a succession of crises born of food insecurity and unaffordable fuel, the question should be: what can we do to prevent other states from devolving into unrest and chaos?
In May, the Maritime Nation Podcast on Russia’s blockade predicted that unrest would occur in developing nations with fragile economies that are wholly dependent on the interconnected flow of food tied to the Black Sea – some like Sri Lanka, directly and others, like Venezuela indirectly. With almost a third of the world’s export market in wheat, 17% of corn and 85% of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil in play, the dynamics around fuel and energy may have been felt first, but the impact of the breakdown in food supplies will cause more strife. Beyond Sri Lanka and Venezuela, states including Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, Egypt, Myanmar, Iran, Iraq and Indonesia all rely heavily on Ukrainian grain. Whereas many of these nations are not aligned and, in some cases, ruled by autocratic leaders, their instability risks further unrest on the continents of South America, Africa, Asia and throughout the Middle East.
To date, neither the NATO Alliance, nor the United Nations have taken sufficient steps to open the sea lines of communication. As each week passes, the distribution of mines in the Black Sea proliferates making the free flow of commerce from the port of Odessa through the Bosporus problematic. Action must be taken sooner, rather than later, to rectify the situation and ease the restrictions on the flow of commerce in the Black Sea. That said, the world cannot expect Ukraine to simultaneously fight for its own sovereignty, and risk military defeat to help solve world hunger.
In the aftermath of NATO’s Madrid Summit, as well as the G-7, and G-20 Conferences, the world’s attention has not sufficiently focused on preventing foreseeable and immediate consequences – like Sri Lanka’s turmoil – from the food supply chain crisis. Indeed, the resulting famine, inflation, and instability in pockets around the world may themselves have tangible and significant consequences on even the most developed states.
Now is a time for humility – governments and leaders around the world should be humbled by the reality that in 2022, food, the most fundamental of human needs, is the source of tremendous challenge and uncertainty. Aloofness and arrogance run the risk of not only alienating people, but opening the door to violent responses. As the United States confronts the facts of the insurrection on 6 January 2020, images of Sri Lankan protestors taking selfies in the Presidential residence and offices are eerily familiar. With the successful ousting of a once-popular government, Sri Lanka may prove inspirational for disaffected populations around the world, not just in developing states.
Given that Russia and China are both major players in these dynamics – operating from positions of relative strength – there also is a tremendous danger of weaponized narratives. Russia in particular is working to poison the minds of millions against the Euro-Atlantic allies, and to paint itself as a benevolent actor. How Russian messaging is perceived in Europe or North America is irrelevant; it is how it is perceived in places like Sri Lanka, Myanmar or Sudan. To that end, expressing the truth and acting with genuine benevolence to ameliorate hunger around the world will be key to preventing further global unrest.
And finally, the states that do not want to see chaos take hold must come together in community to strengthen the most vulnerable states. This is not a time to leverage assistance for advancing any political, ideological, military or governance agenda. The starvation of the world will be profoundly detrimental to the rules-based order, and that alone should be motivation to martial creativity, collective action and critical food supplies to help support people in states susceptible to conflict.
Admiral James G. Foggo, U.S. Navy, retired, is the Dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy. Admiral Foggo is the former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe and Africa, and Allied Joint Force Command, Naples. He Commanded BALTOPS in 2015 and 2016 as well as Exercise Trident Juncture in 2018.
Dr. Ian Ralby is the Founder and CEO of I.R. Consilium, a family firm specializing in maritime and resource security. He is an expert on maritime, military, and international law.
The views expressed in this piece are the sole opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Maritime Strategy or other institutions listed.