Keeping ISIS in Check: The Navy and Marine Corps May Be Needed in Syria
The MOC
By
Michael D. Purzycki
February 4, 2025
The overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 is one of the most positive geopolitical events of the twenty-first century so far. After 14 years of brutal suppression of revolts against his harsh rule—and after a combined 53 years of tyranny under Bashar and his father Hafez before him—Syrians now have a chance to form a government that respects and preserves their dignity. While there are many reasons for observers to temper their hopes with caution, the people of Syria deserve the sympathy and support of Americans.
Assad’s defeat also strikes a blow to Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, all of whom fought on his side during Syria’s long, draining civil war. Russia appears to have lost its naval base at Tartus and Russian jets no longer terrorize Syrian civilians, attacks that were a precursor to Vladimir Putin’s brutality in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Israel has militarily bludgeoned Iran and Hezbollah in conjunction with its retaliation against Hamas for the massive terrorist attack of October 7, 2023, a bludgeoning that also weakened Assad.
While the Islamist movement Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) played the leading role in overthrowing Assad, it does not have full control of Syria. The northeast of the country is largely controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition that is America’s primary local ally in containing the remnants of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). HTS and SDF are attempting to reach agreement on what a post-Assad Syria will look like. If they cannot, an ISIS revival is a distinct possibility.
While ISIS is far weaker than it was a decade ago, when it had major Iraqi and Syrian cities like Mosul and Raqqa under its thumb, it remains a force to be reckoned with. According to analyst Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute, 2024 saw a resurgence of ISIS as casualties from attacks they perpetrated in Syria rose to an average of 65 per month, compared to 35 per month in 2023. If the group took advantage of instability and uncertainty in Syria to expand its territory, it would have an opening to plan, carry out, and inspire terrorist attacks anew.
During its heyday in the 2010s, ISIS and its acolytes perpetrated massive attacks in countries as varied as Belgium, Egypt, France, Germany, Indonesia, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. On American soil, persons inspired by the group committed mass shootings in Orlando and San Bernardino. While many factors contributed to the rise of ISIS, one of them was the final withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011 amid failed negotiations with the Iraqi government over rules for their continued presence.
The United States currently has 2,000 troops in Syria, who, as well as containing ISIS, give America a foothold in its fight against Iranian proxy forces. It is understandable that the new U.S. administration might want to remove them if it believes Syria to be a minor foreign policy concern relative to China, Russia, and Iran. If Washington does so, however, it will need other means at its disposal to snuff out any major ISIS revival that may occur.
The Navy and Marine Corps are among the forces that could play this role with a lighter on-the-ground footprint than the United States currently maintains. Both services have carried out missions in Syria within the past decade. Marine expeditionary units have takenpart in the fight against ISIS, and Marine artillery fire was a key part of the campaign to liberate Raqqa. In 2017 and 2018, when the United States (unilaterally in one case, with Britain and France in the other) struck Assad’s forces in response to chemical weapons attacks on Syrian civilians, Navy Tomahawk missiles were front and center. In October 2023, the deployment of two U.S. aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean sent a clear message to Iran, Assad, and Hezbollah: don’t even think about escalating against Israel while they strike back against Hamas.
Relying on the sea services to keep ISIS down in the Levant would not be inconsistent with an overall shift of focus to the Indo-Pacific for America’s maritime power. While the Navy and Marine Corps work tirelessly to prepare for a possible conflict with China, they will still have a significant presence on the U.S. East Coast. With carrier strike groups at Norfolk, attack submarines at New London, and II Marine Expeditionary Force at Camp Lejeune, America retains the ability to nip a problem like an ISIS revival in the bud and contribute to NATO’s deterrence of Russian aggression in Europe and the Atlantic even as China remains the number one long-term threat to American interests.
It is for the Syrian people to determine their country’s destiny. America has both strategic and moral reasons to help Syrians bring stability to their country after so many years of bloodshed. If ISIS were to rise again, it could jeopardize Syrians’ chances of securing dignity for themselves and their descendants, while providing room for an odious ideology to spread its deadly influence. America’s sea services should be prepared to help make sure that does not happen.
Michael D. Purzycki is an analyst, writer, and editor based in Arlington, Virginia. He has worked for the United States Navy, Marine Corps, and Army. The views expressed here are entirely his own.
The views expressed above are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of any current or former employer, nor do they express an official view of the U.S. government.The views expressed in this piece are the sole opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Maritime Strategy or other institutions listed.
Center for Maritime Strategy
By Michael D. Purzycki
The overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 is one of the most positive geopolitical events of the twenty-first century so far. After 14 years of brutal suppression of revolts against his harsh rule—and after a combined 53 years of tyranny under Bashar and his father Hafez before him—Syrians now have a chance to form a government that respects and preserves their dignity. While there are many reasons for observers to temper their hopes with caution, the people of Syria deserve the sympathy and support of Americans.
Assad’s defeat also strikes a blow to Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, all of whom fought on his side during Syria’s long, draining civil war. Russia appears to have lost its naval base at Tartus and Russian jets no longer terrorize Syrian civilians, attacks that were a precursor to Vladimir Putin’s brutality in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Israel has militarily bludgeoned Iran and Hezbollah in conjunction with its retaliation against Hamas for the massive terrorist attack of October 7, 2023, a bludgeoning that also weakened Assad.
While the Islamist movement Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) played the leading role in overthrowing Assad, it does not have full control of Syria. The northeast of the country is largely controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition that is America’s primary local ally in containing the remnants of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). HTS and SDF are attempting to reach agreement on what a post-Assad Syria will look like. If they cannot, an ISIS revival is a distinct possibility.
While ISIS is far weaker than it was a decade ago, when it had major Iraqi and Syrian cities like Mosul and Raqqa under its thumb, it remains a force to be reckoned with. According to analyst Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute, 2024 saw a resurgence of ISIS as casualties from attacks they perpetrated in Syria rose to an average of 65 per month, compared to 35 per month in 2023. If the group took advantage of instability and uncertainty in Syria to expand its territory, it would have an opening to plan, carry out, and inspire terrorist attacks anew.
During its heyday in the 2010s, ISIS and its acolytes perpetrated massive attacks in countries as varied as Belgium, Egypt, France, Germany, Indonesia, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. On American soil, persons inspired by the group committed mass shootings in Orlando and San Bernardino. While many factors contributed to the rise of ISIS, one of them was the final withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011 amid failed negotiations with the Iraqi government over rules for their continued presence.
The United States currently has 2,000 troops in Syria, who, as well as containing ISIS, give America a foothold in its fight against Iranian proxy forces. It is understandable that the new U.S. administration might want to remove them if it believes Syria to be a minor foreign policy concern relative to China, Russia, and Iran. If Washington does so, however, it will need other means at its disposal to snuff out any major ISIS revival that may occur.
The Navy and Marine Corps are among the forces that could play this role with a lighter on-the-ground footprint than the United States currently maintains. Both services have carried out missions in Syria within the past decade. Marine expeditionary units have taken part in the fight against ISIS, and Marine artillery fire was a key part of the campaign to liberate Raqqa. In 2017 and 2018, when the United States (unilaterally in one case, with Britain and France in the other) struck Assad’s forces in response to chemical weapons attacks on Syrian civilians, Navy Tomahawk missiles were front and center. In October 2023, the deployment of two U.S. aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean sent a clear message to Iran, Assad, and Hezbollah: don’t even think about escalating against Israel while they strike back against Hamas.
Relying on the sea services to keep ISIS down in the Levant would not be inconsistent with an overall shift of focus to the Indo-Pacific for America’s maritime power. While the Navy and Marine Corps work tirelessly to prepare for a possible conflict with China, they will still have a significant presence on the U.S. East Coast. With carrier strike groups at Norfolk, attack submarines at New London, and II Marine Expeditionary Force at Camp Lejeune, America retains the ability to nip a problem like an ISIS revival in the bud and contribute to NATO’s deterrence of Russian aggression in Europe and the Atlantic even as China remains the number one long-term threat to American interests.
It is for the Syrian people to determine their country’s destiny. America has both strategic and moral reasons to help Syrians bring stability to their country after so many years of bloodshed. If ISIS were to rise again, it could jeopardize Syrians’ chances of securing dignity for themselves and their descendants, while providing room for an odious ideology to spread its deadly influence. America’s sea services should be prepared to help make sure that does not happen.
Michael D. Purzycki is an analyst, writer, and editor based in Arlington, Virginia. He has worked for the United States Navy, Marine Corps, and Army. The views expressed here are entirely his own.
The views expressed above are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of any current or former employer, nor do they express an official view of the U.S. government. The views expressed in this piece are the sole opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Maritime Strategy or other institutions listed.