U.S. Air Technology in the Baltic can help Allies create a “Lake of NATO”​

By Michael D. Purzycki

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, he expected NATO to be shaken to its core by Russian military might. In fact, the opposite happened. Alliance members armed Ukraine and boosted their own defense spending. Finland and Sweden, which had maintained their neutrality throughout the Cold War and post-Cold War eras, applied for membership. Pekka Toveri, a retired Finnish major general and former Intelligence Chief of the General Staff of the Defense Forces, said in an interview that, with these new members, the Baltic Sea would become “a lake of NATO.” In his eyes, with every nation along the Baltic (other than Russia) a NATO member, Putin would be very hard-pressed to enforce his will there.

Part of NATO’s strength in the Baltic is American-made aircraft. America’s contribution to the alliance includes not only sending troops and equipment across the Atlantic to defend Europe but also arming allies, to lighten America’s regional burden while it still maintains commitment to the alliance. This is important at a time when Americans are weary of long overseas deployments of their troops. Keeping allies safe is not only a matter of deploying Americans in uniform to conflict zones. It is also about making the best use of U.S. technology. Three American-built aircraft systems, used by NATO members in Northern Europe as well as the U.S., particularly stand out.

F-18

Although the F-18 fighter’s primary users have historically been the U.S. Marine Corps and Navy, the Finnish Air Force also has 62 of them in its arsenal. While Finland is acquiring the U.S. Air Force’s F-35A to become its new primary fighter, it continues to use the F-18 during the transition. Shortly after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the Finnish Air Force requested an emergency supply of missiles for them.

NATO air dominance of the Baltic during a potential conflict with Russia is not a foregone conclusion. In late June 2023, Russian fighter planes conducted drills over the Baltic, likely an attempt to show that they will not be intimidated by two additional democracies standing up to Putin’s aggressive ambitions. Keeping Finland’s F-18s well-armed and ready will help NATO confront this threat, while potentially reducing the likelihood of America needing to deploy its own jets.

P-8A

To dominate the Baltic, NATO will need the ability to quickly detect Russian vessels from its Northern Fleet moving into the Baltic. The P-8A patrol and reconnaissance plane is useful in this regard. In the U.S. Navy’s own words, the P-8A, “has transformed how the Navy’s maritime patrol and reconnaissance force will man, train, operate and deploy.” The United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force acquired its ninth P-8A in 2022, and the Royal Norwegian Air Force is in the process of acquiring five of its own. Both countries are cooperating with the U.S. in exploring the uses of these aircraft in the High North.

To see an example of why, during a conflict, it would be important for NATO to prevent close links between Russia’s Baltic and Northern Fleets, one need only look at the war in Ukraine. Within days of Russia’s invasion, NATO member Turkey closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits to warships, exercising a right it possesses under the Montreux Convention of 1936. By making it impossible for military vessels to enter the Black Sea from the Mediterranean, Turkey has prevented Russia from reinforcing its Black Sea Fleet – whose flagship, the cruiser Moskva, was famously sunk by Ukraine in April 2022.

MH-60R

In the event of conflict with Russia in the Baltic, the MH-60R helicopter will be an important weapon in NATO’s arsenal. The MH-60R is “the U.S. Navy’s primary anti-submarine and surface warfare helicopter specially designed for all aspects of land or maritime operations.” Earlier this year, Norway announced its intention to buy six of them. Denmark has nine, the last of which was acquired in 2018. Their Anti-submarine warfare (“ASW”) capabilities make them valuable in confronting Russia’s underwater fleet, which is one of the largest in the world with an estimated 58 boats.

With Finland now a NATO member, and Sweden expected to join soon, Russia will likely attempt to show it is not intimidated by NATO’s expansion in the Baltic. On June 5, 2023, one day after NATO began its Baltic Operations (“BALTOPS”) 2023 exercise, Russia began its own Baltic naval drills. In the face of Russian exhibitions of power, all NATO members will need the ability to contribute to the defense of Europe. While the U.S. remains the alliance’s preeminent military power, American-made aircraft can help ensure that all allies share the burden of collective security.

 

Michael D. Purzycki is an analyst, writer, and editor based in Arlington, Virginia. He has worked for the United States Navy, Marine Corps, and Army. The views expressed here are entirely his own.

---

The views expressed in this piece are the sole opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Maritime Strategy or other institutions listed.